An annual national auto delinquency forecast by risk-management company TransUnion today suggests the ratio of borrowers with loans 60 or more days past due will remain at the current level through the end of next year.
Auto loan delinquencies are expected to decrease in the first two quarters next year before rising back to 0.51 percent at year end to finish 2012 at the same percentage as year end 2011, TransUnion said.
The company said auto loan delinquencies have decreased noticeably since peaking during the recession at 0.86 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.
"Auto loans have performed quite well since the beginning of 2010, and we expect delinquencies to remain relatively low throughout 2012 as the gradual recovery in the economy will benefit both lenders and consumers," Peter Turek, automotive vice president of the company's financial services unit, said in a statement.
Since the end of 2008, the company said, 60-day auto loan delinquencies have dropped year over year from 0.81 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 0.59 percent in fourth quarter of 2010 and are anticipated to drop to 0.51 percent at the end of 2011.
Of the 21 states expected to see auto delinquencies decrease next year, Michigan, Rhode Island and North Carolina are expected to have the biggest drops, all at about 14 percent.
Among the 29 states expected to have increases in delinquencies, North Dakota, Alaska and Iowa are projected to have the largest percentage gains.
Although North Dakota is expected to have the largest percentage increase in delinquencies, TransUnion said it still expects the state to have the lowest delinquency rate: 0.16 percent.
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