NADA UCG: Wholesale Prices Remain Solid, Effects of Rising Gas Prices Evident

In the first installment of exclusive AuctionNet Wholesale Price and Forecast Data provided by NADA Used Car Guide to Auto Remarketing, wholesale prices remain consistent, but the effect of rising gas prices is “undeniably evident,” the organization stressed.

And some segments, though not normally thought of as gas sippers, are also benefiting from the spring season.

Mid-size vans continue to “benefit not only from lift normally associated with the spring selling season, but also from an ongoing reduction in supply and the versatility (capacity and relative fuel economy) the segment has to offer,” NADA Used Car Guide explained.

The two-week average rate of growth in wholesale prices for this segment led all other segments by 3.8 percent, according to the organization’s AuctionNet data.

And NADA UCG expects wholesale prices for this segment to rise by 3 percent, or $475, over the course of this week.

Following closely behind, the rate of growth for compact car and mid-size car segments has made significant jumps, as well, perhaps reflecting the recent climb in gas prices.

The compact car segment wholesale prices jumped 3.7 percent, and the mid-size car segment saw a rise of 3.2 percent.

“Price growth for the current week is  expected to slow somewhat to 2.5 percent for the compact car segment and 1.6 percent for the mid-size car segment,” NADA Used Car Guide further explained.

On the other hand, indicative of the season change and fuel-price trend, large pickup, large SUV and luxury utility prices have fallen behind other segments.

And NADA UCG analysts expect prices for large pickups and luxury utilities to stay relatively flat.

But large SUVs are expected to see more of a change, falling by 2.3 percent, or an average of $600, the organization concluded.

4- and 2-week AuctionNet wholesale average prices are created by collecting all AuctionNet records for vehicles up to five years of age for a specified period of time.  Prices are then adjusted for changes in mileage and mix.

Current week prices are forecasted based on NADA's proprietary used vehicle value model which includes assumptions for new vehicle prices, used vehicle supply, gasoline prices and other economic factors.

Average AuctionNet® Wholesale Price

Editors Note: Auto Remarketing will be receiving these AuctionNet data updates weekly. Keep an eye out for the next installment in your Auto Remarketing Today e-newsletter.

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Edmunds.com: Loosening Credit and Rising Gas Prices Bring Shoppers Back to Lots

As credit loosens, confidence in the economy improves and gas prices climb, consumers are heading back to the lots, according to the sales forecast from Edmunds.com. 

As these factors drive rising auto sales, analysts contend that after “delaying purchases” over the last couple of years, shoppers will “march” back to the lots, contributing to what Edmunds.com has predicted will be 1,451,956 new-car sales this month.

This translates into a SAAR of 14.9 million units and would mark a 26.4-percent increase from February and a 16.5-percent increase year-over-year.

And an estimated 3.64 million used cars will be sold in March, for a SAAR of 38.3 million units (compared to 3.55 million – or a SAAR of 39.2 million – used-car sales in February), according to the company's data.

“After delaying purchases over the last couple of years, consumers are eager to jump into the new car market,” said Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at Edmunds.com.

“Vehicle trade-in rates have achieved sustained highs in recent months, which suggests that consumers have decided that they’ve held on to their cars for too long. And with the average credit score for new car buyers at its lowest level since the first half of 2008, the market is clearly becoming a friendlier place for all buyers,” she continued.

Breaking the data down further, Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 11.8 million vehicles in March, with fleet transactions accounting for 20.6 percent of total sales.

And as fuel prices climb, shoppers are turning to gas sippers, analysts noted.

“The market share of subcompact and compact vehicles is expected to climb 11.0 percent and 5.8 percent, respectively, from February to March,” Edmunds.com predicted.

“Midsize market share is also projected to climb 2.3 percent over the same period,” analysts added.

And as for market share by automaker, Chrysler continues its upward momentum, with its year-over-year sales and market share set to rise more than any other major auto manufacturer, the company explained.

Chrysler is expected to sell 164,000 vehicles in March, marking a 34.9 percent rise from last year.

Moreover, the OEM’s anticipated market share of 11.3 percent this month is a 1.5-percentage point  rise year-over-year.

And as for the Japanese manufacturers, Toyota is set to be the big player, which Edmunds.com contributed in part to “healthier inventory and favorable pricing.”

Edmunds.com expects Toyota sales to increase 22.1 percent year over year, with a 0.7 percentage point boost in market share, officials concluded.

Edmunds.com also offered the following charts to illustrate its findings:

 

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